1. Interest rates are trending down. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has fallen from a 23-year high of 7.8% in late October to 6.6% per data from Freddie Mac.
2. The Entertainment Industry is back to work with content production in full force.
3. A healthy Equities marketplace creating additional “paper” wealth for investers.
4. While we don’t like the ULA tax, the high end market is beginning to digest its reality and sales volume North of
10 MM is beginning to increase. There is also a ballot measure in 2024 to repeal/amend the tax’s economic impact.
5. Southern California’s landscape and climate.
6. The growing, positive perception of property investment “value” now that prices have been checking back (in some micro markets as much as 35-40%) will continue to
garner global attention for those looking for “safe haven” investments.
7. 2024 brings an election cycle. All levels of Government will look to stimulate economic growth and promote the promise of greater economic abundance. All of this messaging will have a positive impact on the perception of our reality.
We predict a positive outlook for 2024:
Pricing will remain in check as we work through what we believe will be the final year of our housing correction cycle.
Sales volume will be up between 10-15% for the following reasons:
1. More Buyers will enter the marketplace with lower interest rates and the perception of a healthier market place. Validating this point, mortgage applications are up 15% in just 90 days.
2. There will be a light increase in inventory as part of the natural attrition of sellers looking to sell their homes for a variety of reasons; Scaling up or down, death, divorce and relocation to other locations.
3. And… existing Developer inventories will be consumed at a greater clip as new construction Inventory pricing becomes continually more aggressive to minimize carrying costs and profit erosion.
